Week 6 · 2026 · Oct 15–19 · 14 games, none played yet
Every recommendation here is a pair: who comes in, who goes out, and what your starting lineup is worth before and after. A good free agent is not a good move if the required drop costs more than he adds.
It will not rank a defense or a kicker as if that ranking were validated.DST_ORDINAL_RANKING and KICKER_ORDINAL_RANKING are REJECTED in the capability registry, and the labels below are read from that registry rather than written by hand — the day an experiment moves them, the wording changes on its own. What you get instead is the factual context for each matchup and, for kickers, the one thing that is verifiable: whether the player actually has the job.
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Only 2 of 28 clubs have filed the week 6 report — clubs playing Thursday report first, the rest from Wednesday on. So far only DEN, SEA have. For a player on a club that has not filed, no designation means NOT REPORTED, not healthy.
2 daily snapshot(s) kept for this week: 2026-10-13.json, 2026-10-14.json. Nothing is overwritten, so what changed and when stays auditable.
Link a Sleeper league above to see who is actually available in it. Until then this section stays empty on purpose: a waiver list that ignores your league is a list of players you may not be able to add.
This is context, not a ranking. Streaming defenses is DESIGN_ONLY in the registry (E24): the opponent’s implied total predicts points allowed at r 0.388, which is enough to order this table and not enough to call a DST1–DST12 ranking validated.
| Defense | Opponent | Opposing QB | Opp. implied | Pts allowed | Sacks | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | vs LAC | Justin Herbert | 16.40 | 18.50 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| BAL | @ CLE | Deshaun Watson | 17.51 | 24.17 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| NE | vs NYJ | Geno Smith | 18.21 | 20.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| SEA | @ DEN | Bo Nix | 18.69 | 19.67 | 3.33 | 2.00 |
| IND | vs TEN | Cam Ward | 18.79 | 29.33 | 1.67 | 0.33 |
| PIT | @ TB | Baker Mayfield | 19.52 | 23.17 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| CAR | @ PHI | Jalen Hurts | 19.80 | 26.50 | 1.83 | 1.33 |
| LAR | vs ARI | Jacoby Brissett | 19.95 | 25.17 | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| JAX | vs HOU | C.J. Stroud | 20.02 | 16.17 | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| PHI | vs CAR | Bryce Young | 20.70 | 22.50 | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| TB | vs PIT | Aaron Rodgers | 20.98 | 21.00 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| SF | vs WAS | Jayden Daniels | 21.65 | 22.33 | 2.17 | 1.00 |
| DEN | vs SEA | Sam Darnold | 21.81 | 20.17 | 3.00 | 1.17 |
| NO | @ NYG | Jameis Winston | 22.24 | 28.33 | 2.33 | 0.83 |
| HOU | @ JAX | Trevor Lawrence | 22.48 | 23.33 | 3.83 | 1.33 |
| BUF | @ LV | Kirk Cousins | 23.02 | 29.00 | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| NYG | vs NO | Tyler Shough | 23.26 | 20.50 | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| CHI | @ ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 23.66 | 19.33 | 2.67 | 0.83 |
| CLE | vs BAL | Lamar Jackson | 24.99 | 21.67 | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| NYJ | @ NE | Drake Maye | 25.29 | 21.83 | 2.83 | 0.83 |
| TEN | @ IND | Daniel Jones | 25.71 | 25.00 | 2.00 | 0.33 |
| ATL | vs CHI | Caleb Williams | 25.84 | 23.17 | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| LAC | @ KC | Patrick Mahomes | 26.10 | 24.17 | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| GB | vs DAL | Dak Prescott | 26.18 | 23.83 | 2.50 | 1.83 |
| DAL | @ GB | Jordan Love | 27.32 | 28.33 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| WAS | @ SF | Brock Purdy | 28.85 | 27.67 | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| LV | vs BUF | Josh Allen | 30.48 | 23.50 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| ARI | @ LAR | Matthew Stafford | 31.55 | 33.17 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
Ordered by the opponent’s implied total, ascending — the only measured signal in this block. Recent numbers cover 6.00 game(s), which is a small sample this early and is shown so you can judge it.
Does he actually have the job? That question comes before any ranking, and it is the one this project got wrong three times. Verified against the clubs’ own depth chart, snapshot 2026-10-14T12:51:31Z. Per-kicker expected points is VALIDATED (E8). The order is not: KICKER_ORDINAL_RANKING is REJECTED (E8b) — K1 through K6 beat K7 through K12 by 0.26 points per game with the interval crossing zero. Read this as a list of jobs and matchups, not as K1 > K2.
| Kicker | Team | Job | Opponent | Exp. pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison MevisNO NFL TEAM | LAR | NOT THE KICKER · LAR lists Blake Grupe | vs ARI | 9.01 |
| Matt PraterNO NFL TEAM | BUF | NOT THE KICKER · BUF lists Tyler Bass | @ LV | 8.87 |
| Eddy Pineiro | SF | listed first | vs WAS | 8.67 |
| Brandon McManusNO NFL TEAM | GB | NOT THE KICKER · GB lists Trey Smack | vs DAL | 8.46 |
| Brandon Aubrey | DAL | listed first | @ GB | 8.30 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | listed first | vs LAC | 8.29 |
| Cairo Santos | CHI | listed first | @ ATL | 8.25 |
| Blake GrupeNO NFL TEAMNOW NYJ | IND | NOT THE KICKER · IND lists Spencer Shrader | vs TEN | 8.23 |
| Andy Borregales | NE | listed first | vs NYJ | 8.17 |
| Tyler Loop | BAL | listed first | @ CLE | 8.12 |
| Nick Folk | ATL | listed first | vs CHI | 7.91 |
| Daniel Carlson | NO | listed first | @ NYG | 7.85 |
| Matt Gay | LV | listed first | vs BUF | 7.81 |
| Cam Little | JAX | listed first | vs HOU | 7.72 |
| Younghoe KooNO NFL TEAM | NYG | NOT THE KICKER · NYG lists Dominic Zvada | vs NO | 7.68 |
| Jason Myers | SEA | listed first | @ DEN | 7.60 |
| Jake MoodyNO NFL TEAM | WAS | NOT THE KICKER · WAS lists Drew Stevens | @ SF | 7.57 |
| Chris Boswell | PIT | listed first | @ TB | 7.46 |
| Ryan Fitzgerald | CAR | listed first | @ PHI | 7.40 |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU | listed first | @ JAX | 7.28 |
| Chad Ryland | ARI | listed first | @ LAR | 7.27 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | listed first | vs CAR | 7.24 |
| Chase McLaughlin | TB | listed first | vs PIT | 7.19 |
| Joey Slye | TEN | listed first | @ IND | 7.05 |
| Wil Lutz | DEN | listed first | vs SEA | 7.03 |
| Jason Sanders | NYJ | listed first | @ NE | 6.93 |
| Andre Szmyt | CLE | listed first | vs BAL | 6.79 |
| Cameron Dicker | LAC | listed first | @ KC | 6.57 |
A row marked NOT THE KICKER is not a weak recommendation — it is not a recommendation. The name beside it is who the club actually lists.